$QQQ just broke below the 200-day moving average and everyone's asking: is this a blip or the start of something ugly?
Here's the data: there have been 5 real instances where the Qs dipped convincingly below the 200dma (ignoring 1-2 day fakeouts). Average time spent under? 81 days. Average drawdown after the break? -17.8%. The 2022 bear market skews this hard, but still.
Right now we're only 3 days in and down -4.9% from the break. That's nothing compared to historical precedent.
So what happens next? Either we V-shape back up like it was just a shakeout, or this turns into one of those extended bleeds where we chop around under the 200dma for months and drop another 10-15%.
The setup is clean: if we reclaim the 200dma fast with volume, it's a buy-the-dip moment. If we fail and start making lower highs under it, you want to be defensive or short. Watch how price reacts at this level over the next week. That'll tell you everything.
This is a high-conviction inflection point. Don't ignore it.
Here's the data: there have been 5 real instances where the Qs dipped convincingly below the 200dma (ignoring 1-2 day fakeouts). Average time spent under? 81 days. Average drawdown after the break? -17.8%. The 2022 bear market skews this hard, but still.
Right now we're only 3 days in and down -4.9% from the break. That's nothing compared to historical precedent.
So what happens next? Either we V-shape back up like it was just a shakeout, or this turns into one of those extended bleeds where we chop around under the 200dma for months and drop another 10-15%.
The setup is clean: if we reclaim the 200dma fast with volume, it's a buy-the-dip moment. If we fail and start making lower highs under it, you want to be defensive or short. Watch how price reacts at this level over the next week. That'll tell you everything.
This is a high-conviction inflection point. Don't ignore it.
