Here's the contradiction I can't stop thinking about today: the Fear & Greed Index just printed 25 — Extreme Fear — and Bitcoin is sitting at roughly $76,000, up about half a percent, completely unbothered.
Think about what that combination actually means. On Friday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $412 million walk out, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $403 million of it. The Bank of England just hiked rates to 4%. Tech stocks are wobbling, and this week's sell-off liquidated over a billion dollars of leveraged longs. By every textbook, price should be in the gutter — and sentiment is. But price isn't following it down. Liquidations have collapsed to about $165 million in the last 24 hours, down from nearly a billion a day earlier. The sellers look exhausted; the buyers just aren't in a hurry.
My stance: this is the part of the cycle where fear is loudest and least useful. When the index hits Extreme Fear while price holds a level it already tested twice, I read that as capitulation having already happened, not as a warning of more to come. I'm not calling a bottom — $75,775 is the line that has to hold, and a daily close below it changes everything — but buying into panic has paid better than selling into it every single time this year.
So here's the honest question, no wrong answers:
A) Buying the fear — accumulating here while everyone is scared
B) Waiting for confirmation — need a reclaim of $78,000 first
C) Still selling or sitting in stables — you think the fear is justified and lower is coming
I'm in camp A, small size, no leverage. Which camp are you in — and what would change your mind?
$BTC
Think about what that combination actually means. On Friday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $412 million walk out, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $403 million of it. The Bank of England just hiked rates to 4%. Tech stocks are wobbling, and this week's sell-off liquidated over a billion dollars of leveraged longs. By every textbook, price should be in the gutter — and sentiment is. But price isn't following it down. Liquidations have collapsed to about $165 million in the last 24 hours, down from nearly a billion a day earlier. The sellers look exhausted; the buyers just aren't in a hurry.
My stance: this is the part of the cycle where fear is loudest and least useful. When the index hits Extreme Fear while price holds a level it already tested twice, I read that as capitulation having already happened, not as a warning of more to come. I'm not calling a bottom — $75,775 is the line that has to hold, and a daily close below it changes everything — but buying into panic has paid better than selling into it every single time this year.
So here's the honest question, no wrong answers:
A) Buying the fear — accumulating here while everyone is scared
B) Waiting for confirmation — need a reclaim of $78,000 first
C) Still selling or sitting in stables — you think the fear is justified and lower is coming
I'm in camp A, small size, no leverage. Which camp are you in — and what would change your mind?
$BTC
