$JTO last big unlock landed at 01:00 CET. About 17M JTO, roughly 3% of circulating supply, the end of the 24-month vesting for core contributors and investors. No dump. No relief either.
What I see:
The selling came early. In the 7 days before the unlock JTO fell 6.8% while BTC fell 2.0%. At a 1.66 beta that is about 3.5% of JTO's own weakness, sold ahead of the date.
Since 01:00 JTO is down another 2.5% while BTC is up 0.4%. Range 0.339-0.349, hourly volume half of yesterday's, open interest flat near 6.8M, funding a flat 0.005%. Nobody is pressing it either way.
What I think:
This is a slow bleed, not a flush. The densest long liquidation cluster on the map sits at 0.334-0.339, right under the price. Shorts stack at 0.347-0.353.
Odds to 24h, pure volatility (6.4% a day):
0.334 tagged: 81%
0.349 tagged: 66%
0.327 tagged: 57%
What changes my mind:
A 1h close above 0.349 with open interest rising means the supply got absorbed and the unlock is behind us. A clean break of 0.334 opens 0.327.
My long grid keeps running untouched: +54.8 grid profit over 95 fills since Thursday. I am not adding until 0.334 is decided.
Not financial advice.
Unlock priced in: yes or no?
#JTO #Jito #TokenUnlock #Write2Earn $JTO
What I see:
The selling came early. In the 7 days before the unlock JTO fell 6.8% while BTC fell 2.0%. At a 1.66 beta that is about 3.5% of JTO's own weakness, sold ahead of the date.
Since 01:00 JTO is down another 2.5% while BTC is up 0.4%. Range 0.339-0.349, hourly volume half of yesterday's, open interest flat near 6.8M, funding a flat 0.005%. Nobody is pressing it either way.
What I think:
This is a slow bleed, not a flush. The densest long liquidation cluster on the map sits at 0.334-0.339, right under the price. Shorts stack at 0.347-0.353.
Odds to 24h, pure volatility (6.4% a day):
0.334 tagged: 81%
0.349 tagged: 66%
0.327 tagged: 57%
What changes my mind:
A 1h close above 0.349 with open interest rising means the supply got absorbed and the unlock is behind us. A clean break of 0.334 opens 0.327.
My long grid keeps running untouched: +54.8 grid profit over 95 fills since Thursday. I am not adding until 0.334 is decided.
Not financial advice.
Unlock priced in: yes or no?
#JTO #Jito #TokenUnlock #Write2Earn $JTO
