A replay of a simple DCA bot on XRP since Oct 27, on real 1-hour Binance candles. The settings most bots start with: 100 USDT base order, 5 safety orders of 100 each, 2% apart, take profit 1.5% above the average buy price, 0.1% fee per trade, and a new deal after every take profit.
What the bot reports: +14.27 from 6 closed deals. That's six "deal closed in profit" messages.
What actually happened, with XRP at about 1.186:
- The current deal opened on Nov 4 at 1.3158. XRP then fell under 1.19, and the bot used all 5 safety orders. Average buy price 1.2484, target 1.2671. That open deal is about −30, and it isn't in the reported profit.
- Real result, counting the coins the bot holds: about −16 (−2.7% of the 600 USDT the bot needs).
- Just holding XRP over the same days: about −57 (−9.5%).
- Fees paid: 2.82.
So the bot lost about 41 less than holding. But its own number says +14 while the account is −16. And the 5 safety orders only cover a 10% drop from the deal's first buy. The last one sits at about 1.184, just under today's price. If XRP falls further, the bot has no money left to average down. It can only wait.
Four numbers to check on your own DCA bot: closed-deal profit, the open deal at today's price, the money the bot really needs (base order plus all safety orders), and how big a drop the safety orders cover.
The table on the chart is the free open-source script "DCA Bot Reality Check" (I made it). This is a replay on past prices, not a trade idea or financial advice.
