$VIX just spiked 60%+ today. Here's what happened the last 10 times volatility exploded like this since 1990:
3 months out: +7.5% median, 70% win rate
6 months out: +7.7% median, 80% win rate
12 months out: +13.2% median, 80% win rate
Not bad odds.
But before you get too excited — volatility spikes don't mark the exact bottom. 1990 kept grinding lower into recession. November 2021 spiked right before the 2022 bear.
What matters more is what comes next. Does vol start cooling off? Do we see higher lows? Are leaders holding up better than the junk? Do we get a real follow-through day?
Those are the signals worth watching over the next few weeks.
Historically, the setup has been constructive 6-12 months later. But that doesn't mean we can't chop lower first before any real recovery takes hold.
One note: today's 60% move is intraday. The historical study uses closing prices. Close matters more than the intraday chaos.
History doesn't repeat, but it gives you a decent map for what might unfold from here.
3 months out: +7.5% median, 70% win rate
6 months out: +7.7% median, 80% win rate
12 months out: +13.2% median, 80% win rate
Not bad odds.
But before you get too excited — volatility spikes don't mark the exact bottom. 1990 kept grinding lower into recession. November 2021 spiked right before the 2022 bear.
What matters more is what comes next. Does vol start cooling off? Do we see higher lows? Are leaders holding up better than the junk? Do we get a real follow-through day?
Those are the signals worth watching over the next few weeks.
Historically, the setup has been constructive 6-12 months later. But that doesn't mean we can't chop lower first before any real recovery takes hold.
One note: today's 60% move is intraday. The historical study uses closing prices. Close matters more than the intraday chaos.
History doesn't repeat, but it gives you a decent map for what might unfold from here.
