SpaceX has a compelling long-term business story, but the price action on this 4H chart is telling a much more cautious short-term story.
As long as SPCX remains below $145.50, I would treat recovery attempts as potentially corrective. A clean break below $130, especially with a failed retest, could open the door toward the $120–$121 target marked on your chart.
➡️ Fundamental View:
Tesla-SpaceX merger discussions intensify as SpaceX reports 161% revenue growth to $14.58B, driven partly by AI infrastructure expansion.
SpaceX announced an approximately $40 billion GPU and related equipment financing arrangement with an Apollo-managed entity in October. Reuters also reported on November 4 that Goldman Sachs and Apollo were seeking investors to participate in portions of that financing.
Long-term business prospects remain interesting, particularly because of Starlink and AI. However, valuation, capital expenditure, financing requirements, and potential shareholder selling create risks for the stock in the near term.
In other words, the business can be doing well while the share price continues to correct.
➡️ Right now I am considering 3 scenarios:
✅Bullish scenario: If $130 holds, buyers could attempt to push SPCX back toward $137–$140. A stronger recovery above $143 would weaken the bearish flag, while reclaiming $145.50 could open the way toward $150–$152.
If momentum continues improving, the larger $160–$163 supply zone becomes the next major upside area.
✅Bearish scenario: If SPCX fails to recover and loses $130 on a convincing 4H close, the bearish flag could confirm its continuation.
A failed retest of $130 would increase the probability of a move toward $125, followed by the marked $120–$121 target zone.
✅ Neutral scenario: Price may continue moving sideways between approximately $130 and $143 while the market searches for direction. In that situation, chasing either side in the middle of the range could be inefficient. Waiting for a confirmed breakout or breakdown would make more sense.
➡️My Trading Plan:
✅Long Setup:
1/ Setup A: Support reaction around $130–$133
• Entry: $130–$133, after a bullish reaction and confirmation.
• SL: Below $127.50, depending on the entry and volatility.
• TP-1: $137–$140.
• TP-2: $142–$143.
• TP-3: $145–$146.
However, if the price breaks below $130 and fails to reclaim it, I would cancel this setup rather than continue looking for a long.
✅Short Setup: Rejection from $137–$143
• Entry: $137–$143 after a clear bearish rejection.
• SL: Above the confirmed rejection swing, potentially around $145.50.
• TP-1: $133–$134.
• TP-2: $130.
• TP-3: $120–$121.
I would particularly watch for bearish engulfing candles, long upper wicks, or a failed attempt to reclaim the upper part of the flag.
➡️ While waiting for the entry, I am preparing to take part in the new Bitget Anthropic IPO Prime. I took part in both the SpaceX and OpenAI IPO Prime and managed to make some profits along the way since both of them are quite successful.
So I am definitely going for this one too.
➡️My overall outlook:
If I look at the chart without considering the SpaceX narrative, the technical picture is still leaning bearish.
But I don't think it makes sense to become aggressively bearish just because the chart looks weak. SpaceX's business is expanding, and a positive catalyst or broader market recovery could trigger a sharp rebound.
I would rather wait for a confirmed breakdown or a convincing reclaim than try to predict the exact bottom.
SPCXUSDT
無期限
126.97
-5.30%
