Solana is the one major I still can't get excited about in this bounce — and that gap is the whole trade for me.
Bitcoin is up about 5.4% and Ethereum nearly 7.5% in the last day, but SOL is trailing at roughly 4% near $96, and it's still sitting underneath its own moving averages. The daily RSI hit 26 on November 3 — properly oversold — so this bounce had a reason to happen. But RSI is only back to 38, and SOL is still down over 20% in a month and 67% below its $293 all-time high. That's not a reversal yet, that's a dead-cat bounce until proven otherwise.
What would change my mind: a daily close above $97.85, and then through the 100-day line at $98.52. That cluster is the gate — reclaim it and the structure flips, with $100.66 next. Below, $94.22 is the first line, then $91.39. Lose that and the $89.77 low from November 4 is back in play.
My lean: no chase here. SOL is the laggard of this rally, and laggards either catch up hard or roll over first — I'll let the $98.50 test decide which one this is. What are you watching — SOL reclaiming $98.50, or Bitcoin dragging it along? Not financial advice. $SOL
Bitcoin is up about 5.4% and Ethereum nearly 7.5% in the last day, but SOL is trailing at roughly 4% near $96, and it's still sitting underneath its own moving averages. The daily RSI hit 26 on November 3 — properly oversold — so this bounce had a reason to happen. But RSI is only back to 38, and SOL is still down over 20% in a month and 67% below its $293 all-time high. That's not a reversal yet, that's a dead-cat bounce until proven otherwise.
What would change my mind: a daily close above $97.85, and then through the 100-day line at $98.52. That cluster is the gate — reclaim it and the structure flips, with $100.66 next. Below, $94.22 is the first line, then $91.39. Lose that and the $89.77 low from November 4 is back in play.
My lean: no chase here. SOL is the laggard of this rally, and laggards either catch up hard or roll over first — I'll let the $98.50 test decide which one this is. What are you watching — SOL reclaiming $98.50, or Bitcoin dragging it along? Not financial advice. $SOL
