FILUSDT (Binance USDT-M perp) - short the range-high sweep, trigger only
Verdict
Bearish fade at range highs. Short breakdown-retest ONLY if 15m closes below 0.8801. No market short, no chase.
The box (frozen for this post)
L 0.8280 / M 0.8583 / H 0.8885
Touch counts, last 20 closed 1h (+/-0.0015): L 1, M 9, H 1
L validated by exact 0.8280 lows on 1h, 4h and daily. M magnetic with 9 touches and 5 closes pinned to it. H swept to 0.9036 then 1h closed back below it at 0.8853.
The plan (trigger only)
Bias: short H-sweep reclaim. Trigger: 15m CLOSE below 0.8801, then sell the retest.
Entry 0.8800
Stop 0.8925 (above 15m highs 0.8921/0.8914)
TP1 0.8583 (range mid) - net R 1.60 after 0.1% costs
TP2 0.8280 (range low) - net R 4.02 after 0.1% costs
Size retest only. Closes-only management, stop is hard.
Alt
If 15m reclaims H with a close above 0.8885 and holds it as support, short is dead and long toward 0.9036 opens. If price flushes straight to M 0.8583 and 15m prints MSB up, long M-reclaim toward H becomes the plan. If 0.8801 never breaks on a 15m close, no trade.
Invalidation
Idea dies on 15m or 1h CLOSE above 0.9036 (sweep high). Stop 0.8925 exits first.
Positioning
Funding 7d mean +0.0059% per 8h, last 8 prints pinned at +0.01% cap (mild long pay). OI flat 45.95M to 46.27M FIL. Long/Short accounts 1.1505, top traders 2.7624 (long, off 3.0 peak, no veto either side). Perp premium near zero. Taker flow unavailable (endpoint error). $FIL $BTC #write2earn
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Verdict
Bearish fade at range highs. Short breakdown-retest ONLY if 15m closes below 0.8801. No market short, no chase.
The box (frozen for this post)
L 0.8280 / M 0.8583 / H 0.8885
Touch counts, last 20 closed 1h (+/-0.0015): L 1, M 9, H 1
L validated by exact 0.8280 lows on 1h, 4h and daily. M magnetic with 9 touches and 5 closes pinned to it. H swept to 0.9036 then 1h closed back below it at 0.8853.
The plan (trigger only)
Bias: short H-sweep reclaim. Trigger: 15m CLOSE below 0.8801, then sell the retest.
Entry 0.8800
Stop 0.8925 (above 15m highs 0.8921/0.8914)
TP1 0.8583 (range mid) - net R 1.60 after 0.1% costs
TP2 0.8280 (range low) - net R 4.02 after 0.1% costs
Size retest only. Closes-only management, stop is hard.
Alt
If 15m reclaims H with a close above 0.8885 and holds it as support, short is dead and long toward 0.9036 opens. If price flushes straight to M 0.8583 and 15m prints MSB up, long M-reclaim toward H becomes the plan. If 0.8801 never breaks on a 15m close, no trade.
Invalidation
Idea dies on 15m or 1h CLOSE above 0.9036 (sweep high). Stop 0.8925 exits first.
Positioning
Funding 7d mean +0.0059% per 8h, last 8 prints pinned at +0.01% cap (mild long pay). OI flat 45.95M to 46.27M FIL. Long/Short accounts 1.1505, top traders 2.7624 (long, off 3.0 peak, no veto either side). Perp premium near zero. Taker flow unavailable (endpoint error). $FIL $BTC #write2earn
Reply with your coin you want analysis on.
