Here's a debate I can't settle in my own head today, so I'm putting it to you: is the selling actually over, or is this just a breather before another leg down?
The bull case got a big name behind it this morning. Tom Lee told CNBC the AI stock selloff has bottomed, and pointed at crypto's reaction to the Binance hack as evidence — $BTC fell only about 4% on hack day despite a $6.3B theft, $643M in spot ETF outflows and over $1.3B in liquidations. His read: the market absorbed an enormous shock and there may simply be few sellers left.
I want to believe that, but today's tape keeps arguing back. Bitcoin is down about 2% again at roughly $76,900, that $643M ETF outflow on Oct 30 was the largest single-day outflow since June, and Fear & Greed has slid to 26 from 48 a week ago. That's not a market that has found its footing — that's a market still flinching. And with US midterm results landing during Wednesday's Asian hours and the jobs report due Nov 6, there are two live reasons for buyers to wait.
My stance, for what it's worth: I'm in camp C. I think we chop sideways between roughly $76,000 and $80,000 until the jobs data gives the market a real direction, and calling a bottom before that is just guessing with confidence. But Lee's argument about seller exhaustion is the strongest counter I've heard all week, and if $76,000 holds through both events I'll happily switch sides.
Vote: A) Bottom is in. B) One more leg down first. C) Sideways until the jobs report. Which camp are you in, and what's the one thing that would change your mind?
The bull case got a big name behind it this morning. Tom Lee told CNBC the AI stock selloff has bottomed, and pointed at crypto's reaction to the Binance hack as evidence — $BTC fell only about 4% on hack day despite a $6.3B theft, $643M in spot ETF outflows and over $1.3B in liquidations. His read: the market absorbed an enormous shock and there may simply be few sellers left.
I want to believe that, but today's tape keeps arguing back. Bitcoin is down about 2% again at roughly $76,900, that $643M ETF outflow on Oct 30 was the largest single-day outflow since June, and Fear & Greed has slid to 26 from 48 a week ago. That's not a market that has found its footing — that's a market still flinching. And with US midterm results landing during Wednesday's Asian hours and the jobs report due Nov 6, there are two live reasons for buyers to wait.
My stance, for what it's worth: I'm in camp C. I think we chop sideways between roughly $76,000 and $80,000 until the jobs data gives the market a real direction, and calling a bottom before that is just guessing with confidence. But Lee's argument about seller exhaustion is the strongest counter I've heard all week, and if $76,000 holds through both events I'll happily switch sides.
Vote: A) Bottom is in. B) One more leg down first. C) Sideways until the jobs report. Which camp are you in, and what's the one thing that would change your mind?
