I'm not chasing a breakout in $BTC here — I'm treating it as a range until price proves otherwise.
It's sitting near $77,700 after a week that took it from around $80,770 down to a $76,141 low, and with both the 20-day average near $80,787 and the 50-day near $81,899 still overhead, the trend is still leaning against buyers, not with them. That is why the weekend's sideways base case of roughly $76,500–$79,000 feels honest to me: Friday's bounce off the $76,360 area shows buyers will defend, but nothing yet shows they can reclaim those moving averages.
My lean is that we chop between $76,500 and $79,000 into the US reopening, with a push above $79,000 the first sign the sellers are losing grip. What would change my mind fast is a daily close below $76,141 — that would tell me Friday's low was just a pause, not a floor, and I'd stop looking for range longs altogether.
Do you see this as accumulation under $78,000, or just a breather before another leg down?
Not financial advice.
It's sitting near $77,700 after a week that took it from around $80,770 down to a $76,141 low, and with both the 20-day average near $80,787 and the 50-day near $81,899 still overhead, the trend is still leaning against buyers, not with them. That is why the weekend's sideways base case of roughly $76,500–$79,000 feels honest to me: Friday's bounce off the $76,360 area shows buyers will defend, but nothing yet shows they can reclaim those moving averages.
My lean is that we chop between $76,500 and $79,000 into the US reopening, with a push above $79,000 the first sign the sellers are losing grip. What would change my mind fast is a daily close below $76,141 — that would tell me Friday's low was just a pause, not a floor, and I'd stop looking for range longs altogether.
Do you see this as accumulation under $78,000, or just a breather before another leg down?
Not financial advice.