76,894 after the hold: the Fed did nothing, and $BTC sold it anyway 🧭
Oct 28's FOMC kept 3.75-4.0% and went wait-and-see until midterms — exactly as priced; the two reds (81.9k to 76.3k) were uncertainty doing what cuts used to do. $ETH mirrored it: 2,350 lost, 2,172 tagged on ETF drips.
Positioning stayed honest: OI flat near 7.5B USD, funding ~0.004 — spot and patience trading, not leverage unwinding.
One level each: $BTC 76,000 — lose it and the September gap (73.5k) opens; reclaim 78,000 and the break was a sweep. $ETH 2,172 asks it in miniature.
Odds: base 76-77k ~45%, gap tag ~30%, reclaim ~25%. Bot idea: vol term structure pre/post FOMC as a midterm-week uncertainty timer 🧪
Oct 28's FOMC kept 3.75-4.0% and went wait-and-see until midterms — exactly as priced; the two reds (81.9k to 76.3k) were uncertainty doing what cuts used to do. $ETH mirrored it: 2,350 lost, 2,172 tagged on ETF drips.
Positioning stayed honest: OI flat near 7.5B USD, funding ~0.004 — spot and patience trading, not leverage unwinding.
One level each: $BTC 76,000 — lose it and the September gap (73.5k) opens; reclaim 78,000 and the break was a sweep. $ETH 2,172 asks it in miniature.
Odds: base 76-77k ~45%, gap tag ~30%, reclaim ~25%. Bot idea: vol term structure pre/post FOMC as a midterm-week uncertainty timer 🧪
