The FTX collapse marked the bottom in 2022. Is the Binance hack doing the same in 2026?
That's the thesis circulating after Thursday's record hack. In November 2022, FTX imploded, and Bitcoin put in its cycle low near $15,500, down about 77% from its peak, as the market's worst fear came true and sellers ran out. In 2018 and 2022 alike, the cycle lows arrived in Q4.
This time the setup looks different on the chart. Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025 and fell about 52% to roughly $58,500 in June 2026, the shallowest bear market in its history. It then bounced around 45% to $85,000 before sliding back to about $77,000 after the Binance hack, a $6 billion event that was absorbed with relatively little damage to price.
That's the bull case in one line: the biggest crypto hack ever recorded, and Bitcoin didn't retest its lows. Proponents see a market that has priced in worst-case headlines.
The bear case is just as clear. The June low may already be the bottom, which would make this a higher low and not a capitulation. And if the cycle follows 2022's depth, some analysts see downside well below current levels, including NYDIG's scenario near $38,000 to $39,000.
A famous analogy is not a forecast. Nobody calls bottoms with certainty, least of all from one event.
Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #Binance #BearMarket #Crypto #BTC
That's the thesis circulating after Thursday's record hack. In November 2022, FTX imploded, and Bitcoin put in its cycle low near $15,500, down about 77% from its peak, as the market's worst fear came true and sellers ran out. In 2018 and 2022 alike, the cycle lows arrived in Q4.
This time the setup looks different on the chart. Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025 and fell about 52% to roughly $58,500 in June 2026, the shallowest bear market in its history. It then bounced around 45% to $85,000 before sliding back to about $77,000 after the Binance hack, a $6 billion event that was absorbed with relatively little damage to price.
That's the bull case in one line: the biggest crypto hack ever recorded, and Bitcoin didn't retest its lows. Proponents see a market that has priced in worst-case headlines.
The bear case is just as clear. The June low may already be the bottom, which would make this a higher low and not a capitulation. And if the cycle follows 2022's depth, some analysts see downside well below current levels, including NYDIG's scenario near $38,000 to $39,000.
A famous analogy is not a forecast. Nobody calls bottoms with certainty, least of all from one event.
Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #Binance #BearMarket #Crypto #BTC
