The Fed held at 3.75–4%, but two members voted for a hike. Bitcoin's reaction: $80.9K → $81.8K in two hours, then $79.7K overnight.
★ What the Fed signaled (Oct 28)
→ A pause after September's 25bp hike. Vote 10–2: Cook and Hammack wanted another 25bp now.
→ The statement still reads "Inflation remains elevated."
→ CME FedWatch prices a December hike at 79.6%, up from 73.3% a week ago. Polymarket has it at ~79%.
★ What $BTC is doing
→ Stuck between ~$79K and ~$87K since Sep 21 (chart: Investing.com).
→ The September hike didn't stop the breakout. BTC closed hike day at $76.2K and hit $87.4K five days later, as spot ETFs took in $2.39B in the week of Sep 21 (Farside).
→ October ETF flows: just +$110M net through Oct 28, even after +$424M in the last three sessions.
→ Binance perp OI is ~95.8K BTC, inside a 92.4K–98.2K band all month. Funding has stayed at or below the 0.01% per 8h baseline all week (~0.006% now). Leverage isn't chasing a breakout either.
→ Caveat: Binance is one venue, and Farside's latest day can still be revised. Prices in the text are Binance; the chart is Bitfinex.
My read: the hike is mostly priced. What moved BTC in September was ETF demand, and that's what's missing now.
Does BTC need the Fed to blink, or just the ETF bid to come back?
★ What the Fed signaled (Oct 28)
→ A pause after September's 25bp hike. Vote 10–2: Cook and Hammack wanted another 25bp now.
→ The statement still reads "Inflation remains elevated."
→ CME FedWatch prices a December hike at 79.6%, up from 73.3% a week ago. Polymarket has it at ~79%.
★ What $BTC is doing
→ Stuck between ~$79K and ~$87K since Sep 21 (chart: Investing.com).
→ The September hike didn't stop the breakout. BTC closed hike day at $76.2K and hit $87.4K five days later, as spot ETFs took in $2.39B in the week of Sep 21 (Farside).
→ October ETF flows: just +$110M net through Oct 28, even after +$424M in the last three sessions.
→ Binance perp OI is ~95.8K BTC, inside a 92.4K–98.2K band all month. Funding has stayed at or below the 0.01% per 8h baseline all week (~0.006% now). Leverage isn't chasing a breakout either.
→ Caveat: Binance is one venue, and Farside's latest day can still be revised. Prices in the text are Binance; the chart is Bitfinex.
My read: the hike is mostly priced. What moved BTC in September was ETF demand, and that's what's missing now.
Does BTC need the Fed to blink, or just the ETF bid to come back?
