FOMC tonight. A hold is almost fully priced, so the rate itself is not the trade. The tone is.
Where things stand:
• Fed funds at 3.75%-4.00% after September's 25bp hike
• CPI at 3.7%, hotter than expected two months in a row
• FedWatch: around 90% hold today, while most of the market already expects another hike in December
• Decision 18:00 UTC, Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC
My prediction: hold, with a hawkish tone. One or two dissents voting for a hike (Hammack and Logan are the names to watch), and Warsh keeping December open without promising it.
Not financial advice.
$BTC
Where things stand:
• Fed funds at 3.75%-4.00% after September's 25bp hike
• CPI at 3.7%, hotter than expected two months in a row
• FedWatch: around 90% hold today, while most of the market already expects another hike in December
• Decision 18:00 UTC, Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC
My prediction: hold, with a hawkish tone. One or two dissents voting for a hike (Hammack and Logan are the names to watch), and Warsh keeping December open without promising it.
Not financial advice.
$BTC