$PONS - 1h Trade Setup - WAIT, base broken but the retest is not confirmed
Verdict: WAIT. 4h volume 3.6x broke the 3-week base 0.2177-0.2688, ran to 0.3117, then failed to hold and dumped back to 0.2850. Price sits 59% up the 1h box, mid-leg is the worst place to buy.
The box (last 20 closed 1h bars):
HIGH 0.3117 (1 touch, 05:00 spike)
MID 0.2787 (21EMA 0.2764 below mid)
LOW 0.2458 (3 touches)
Base (4h, 10-18 to 10-27): 0.2177 - 0.2432 - 0.2688, 22 taps high, 1 tap low, price now 132% of it.
The plan (trigger only):
Entry 0.2885 (1h close back above 0.2888 after tagging it)
Stop 0.2785 (below 1h structure)
TP1 0.3080 (take 50%, net R 1.8)
TP2 0.3199 (measured move 0.2688+0.0511, net R 2.9)
Alt 4h close above 0.2688 from below buys 0.2700, stop 0.2620, net R 4.4 to TP1
Alt 1h close above 0.3117 then retest is a chase, net R 0.6, skip
Alt sweep above 0.3117 then 15m close under 0.3080 is the short, 0.3080 stop 0.3140, TP 0.2900
Invalidation: 1h close below 0.2785 kills the retest, 4h close back under 0.2688 kills the breakout, and no valid 1h, 4h or daily range to fade into.
OI +23% to 27.3M in 24h on price +16%, fresh longs not a squeeze, funding flat 0.005% per 8h, top traders 70% long at L/S 2.34, D1 EMA21 0.3101 still overhead so counter-trend until daily reclaims it. FOMC 18:00 UTC, no size before 19:30. BTC 81.4k firm, tape supportive. #write2earn
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Verdict: WAIT. 4h volume 3.6x broke the 3-week base 0.2177-0.2688, ran to 0.3117, then failed to hold and dumped back to 0.2850. Price sits 59% up the 1h box, mid-leg is the worst place to buy.
The box (last 20 closed 1h bars):
HIGH 0.3117 (1 touch, 05:00 spike)
MID 0.2787 (21EMA 0.2764 below mid)
LOW 0.2458 (3 touches)
Base (4h, 10-18 to 10-27): 0.2177 - 0.2432 - 0.2688, 22 taps high, 1 tap low, price now 132% of it.
The plan (trigger only):
Entry 0.2885 (1h close back above 0.2888 after tagging it)
Stop 0.2785 (below 1h structure)
TP1 0.3080 (take 50%, net R 1.8)
TP2 0.3199 (measured move 0.2688+0.0511, net R 2.9)
Alt 4h close above 0.2688 from below buys 0.2700, stop 0.2620, net R 4.4 to TP1
Alt 1h close above 0.3117 then retest is a chase, net R 0.6, skip
Alt sweep above 0.3117 then 15m close under 0.3080 is the short, 0.3080 stop 0.3140, TP 0.2900
Invalidation: 1h close below 0.2785 kills the retest, 4h close back under 0.2688 kills the breakout, and no valid 1h, 4h or daily range to fade into.
OI +23% to 27.3M in 24h on price +16%, fresh longs not a squeeze, funding flat 0.005% per 8h, top traders 70% long at L/S 2.34, D1 EMA21 0.3101 still overhead so counter-trend until daily reclaims it. FOMC 18:00 UTC, no size before 19:30. BTC 81.4k firm, tape supportive. #write2earn
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