$PEPE is ~$0.00000488 at 11:18 ICT Oct 28 on Binance spot, +13% in 24h on ~$55M Binance volume. This morning's 4H candle (07:00 ICT) went from $0.00000460 to $0.00000502 on ~$27M, the biggest 4H bar since the Oct 23 spike. I want the retest, not the top of the candle.

🔥 What's moving it

• Oct 27: on-chain data showed wallets linked to Justin Sun hold ~2.82% of PEPE supply, worth ~$51.25M. Nearly all of it arrived in two exchange withdrawals: 7.2T PEPE (~$28.4M) on Oct 17 and 4.65T (~$20.3M) on Oct 26. That makes him the largest individual holder outside exchanges.

• Part of the attribution is inferred, not confirmed ownership. It does not tell us why the tokens moved.

• The push overnight was partly forced: ~$330K of PEPE shorts were liquidated in one hour, with $0 longs.

• Perp funding is flat (~0.01% per 8h), so leverage isn't stretched yet.

📊 Daily (1D)

Price is above the 1D EMA20 (~$0.00000436), EMA50 (~$0.00000412) and EMA200 (~$0.00000383). The Oct 24–27 base held $0.00000421–0.00000426 four days in a row.

The problem is overhead: Oct 23 wicked to $0.00000511 and closed at $0.00000457. Sep 22 topped at $0.00000536. Wilder RSI(14) ~63, with room before overbought.

⏱️ 4H

The breakout candle opened at $0.00000460, right at the top of the base. 4H EMA20 (~$0.00000450) is back above EMA50 (~$0.00000443).

Wilder RSI(14) ~69 (last closed bar ~72). That's stretched, so a pullback into $0.00000460–0.00000468 is the healthy version. A 4H close back under $0.00000445 puts price back inside the base and under the 4H EMAs, and the breakout fails.

🎯 Bull / bear levels

• Bid: $0.00000460–0.00000468 (breakout retest)

• TP1: $0.00000502–0.00000511 (today's high + Oct 23 wick), ~1.9–2.35R from $0.00000464

• TP2: $0.00000530–0.00000536 (Sep 22 high), ~3.3–3.6R

• Out: 4H close below $0.00000445 (stop $0.00000444, risk ~4.3%)

• Bull trigger: a 4H close above $0.00000511 flips the Oct 23 wick into support

• Bear case: losing $0.00000445 opens the base lows at $0.00000421–0.00000426

💭 My take

A big wallet buying ~$49M in 10 days is real money, and the squeeze shows shorts were leaning the wrong way. But "whale bought" headlines tend to get front-run, and the same $0.00000502–0.00000511 wall already rejected price on Oct 23. Chasing $0.00000488 is only ~0.3–0.5R to TP1. I'd rather leave a bid on the retest and accept a miss.

Retest bid at $0.00000464, or wait for a 4H close above $0.00000511? 👇

NFA. DYOR.