Kamino's Thin Float Meets a DeFi Drain
1. Kamino is holding a relative bid while the broader tape softens, but the setup is more structural than demand-led. Only 58.4% of supply circulates and fully diluted value sits at 1.7x market cap, so the move is happening in a thin float with a visible dilution overhang.
2. The demand backdrop is not cooperating. DefiLlama shows stablecoin supply down $2.23B over seven days and DeFi TVL off $809.8M in the last day, while DEX volume fell 11%—a direct headwind for lending and liquidity venues. Basis Desk's $16.4M net stablecoin outflow from exchanges reinforces thinner venue dry powder.
3. Macro adds a second headwind: the broad dollar near 121 keeps pressure on small-cap risk assets even as the 10-year yield eased. With Kamino's perp funding marginally negative and open interest small, this looks like under-owned strength rather than crowded leverage—but the float overhang caps how much the market should pay for it.
$kmno
1. Kamino is holding a relative bid while the broader tape softens, but the setup is more structural than demand-led. Only 58.4% of supply circulates and fully diluted value sits at 1.7x market cap, so the move is happening in a thin float with a visible dilution overhang.
2. The demand backdrop is not cooperating. DefiLlama shows stablecoin supply down $2.23B over seven days and DeFi TVL off $809.8M in the last day, while DEX volume fell 11%—a direct headwind for lending and liquidity venues. Basis Desk's $16.4M net stablecoin outflow from exchanges reinforces thinner venue dry powder.
3. Macro adds a second headwind: the broad dollar near 121 keeps pressure on small-cap risk assets even as the 10-year yield eased. With Kamino's perp funding marginally negative and open interest small, this looks like under-owned strength rather than crowded leverage—but the float overhang caps how much the market should pay for it.
$kmno