23 Oct 2026, 03:25 UTC
Follow my profile. I research markets for retail traders.
CENTRAL BANKS CAN WAIT. CAN YOU?
Gold was about $2,624 at the end of 2024. Today it is near $4,000, and in January 2026 it passed $5,000. Now people say $5,600, “because X said, Y bought, a million traders came in.”
Here is the difference nobody mentions.
Central banks bought over 1,000 tonnes a year in 2022, 2023 and 2024, and 863 tonnes in 2025. My estimate of their average cost is about $2,500 an ounce. They hold about 39,000 tonnes, and they buy for reserves, not for a quick profit. If gold goes to $6,000 or falls to $3,000, they are fine both ways. They can wait years.
You are a retail trader. You usually have leverage, margin calls and a job to go back to. You cannot wait years.
My view, and it is only my view:
For a retail trader, the 2024 price is the anchor. A rise of about 20% from there, to roughly $3,150, is a fair, explainable move. Everything above that is a bet on fear, not on value. When fear fades, those buyers can leave quickly.
Cause chain now:
Saudi attacks → oil near $113 → inflation fear → Fed hike bets (about 89% for another hike) → yields up → pressure on gold, silver and BTC
Watch list, a snapshot at this time:
$XAU Gold: Bearish trend, key support $4,000, then $3,943 $CL Oil: Bullish while Middle East risk stays $BTC Bitcoin: Bearish short term, about $81,400 $XAG Silver: Bearish, three-month low near $55
I don’t claim to predict every candle. I want to understand WHY.
To the 90% of retail traders: do not copy the strong hands. Risk only what you can lose, avoid leverage in overnight moves, and remember the Fed meets on Oct 28.
Do you trade gold for the trend, or do you wait for a fair price?
$XAU
$CL $BTC $XAG
#Gold #XAU #TraderProtectionFund #BinanceSquare
Follow my profile. I research markets for retail traders.
CENTRAL BANKS CAN WAIT. CAN YOU?
Gold was about $2,624 at the end of 2024. Today it is near $4,000, and in January 2026 it passed $5,000. Now people say $5,600, “because X said, Y bought, a million traders came in.”
Here is the difference nobody mentions.
Central banks bought over 1,000 tonnes a year in 2022, 2023 and 2024, and 863 tonnes in 2025. My estimate of their average cost is about $2,500 an ounce. They hold about 39,000 tonnes, and they buy for reserves, not for a quick profit. If gold goes to $6,000 or falls to $3,000, they are fine both ways. They can wait years.
You are a retail trader. You usually have leverage, margin calls and a job to go back to. You cannot wait years.
My view, and it is only my view:
For a retail trader, the 2024 price is the anchor. A rise of about 20% from there, to roughly $3,150, is a fair, explainable move. Everything above that is a bet on fear, not on value. When fear fades, those buyers can leave quickly.
Cause chain now:
Saudi attacks → oil near $113 → inflation fear → Fed hike bets (about 89% for another hike) → yields up → pressure on gold, silver and BTC
Watch list, a snapshot at this time:
$XAU Gold: Bearish trend, key support $4,000, then $3,943 $CL Oil: Bullish while Middle East risk stays $BTC Bitcoin: Bearish short term, about $81,400 $XAG Silver: Bearish, three-month low near $55
I don’t claim to predict every candle. I want to understand WHY.
To the 90% of retail traders: do not copy the strong hands. Risk only what you can lose, avoid leverage in overnight moves, and remember the Fed meets on Oct 28.
Do you trade gold for the trend, or do you wait for a fair price?
$XAU
$CL $BTC $XAG
#Gold #XAU #TraderProtectionFund #BinanceSquare