Bitcoin’s 9-month momentum has printed five oversold signals that lined up with cycle bottoms.
the Rand Group Research chart tracks monthly closes on a log scale from 2011 through October 2026, with the 9-month rate of change and a 3-month smoothing. The blue and green lines drop into the same oversold zone at five marked lows: the early cycles around 2011–2012 and 2015, then 2018, 2022, and the latest reading in 2026. Price is near $100,000 on the log scale at the right edge after recovering from the prior drawdown.
the pattern is the alignment. Each time the 9-month momentum reached the same deeply negative territory, price was near a multi-year low. The subsequent moves higher followed in each prior case. The current signal is the fifth instance on the chart. The source is TradingView and CoinGecko data.
the signal marks the condition, not the duration or the size of the next advance. Past bottoms have differed in depth and recovery speed. The 2026 low has already produced a rebound, and the momentum line has started to turn up from the oversold zone.
the chart shows the same momentum reading has coincided with five cycle lows. Whether the latest print marks another such low depends on whether price holds the recovery and the momentum continues to improve. The historical match is clear. The follow-through is still developing.
the Rand Group Research chart tracks monthly closes on a log scale from 2011 through October 2026, with the 9-month rate of change and a 3-month smoothing. The blue and green lines drop into the same oversold zone at five marked lows: the early cycles around 2011–2012 and 2015, then 2018, 2022, and the latest reading in 2026. Price is near $100,000 on the log scale at the right edge after recovering from the prior drawdown.
the pattern is the alignment. Each time the 9-month momentum reached the same deeply negative territory, price was near a multi-year low. The subsequent moves higher followed in each prior case. The current signal is the fifth instance on the chart. The source is TradingView and CoinGecko data.
the signal marks the condition, not the duration or the size of the next advance. Past bottoms have differed in depth and recovery speed. The 2026 low has already produced a rebound, and the momentum line has started to turn up from the oversold zone.
the chart shows the same momentum reading has coincided with five cycle lows. Whether the latest print marks another such low depends on whether price holds the recovery and the momentum continues to improve. The historical match is clear. The follow-through is still developing.