$ENA is ~$0.2038 at 15:23 ICT Oct 21 (OKX and Binance spot, +9% in 24h). It tagged $0.2065 late morning and got sold right at the $0.2064–0.2086 ceiling. Here is my plan without chasing.
🔥 What's moving it
• DeFi rotation. On OKX over the last 24h: COMP +19%, ZRO +8%, LDO +7%, PENDLE +6%, UNI +6%, AAVE +5%. BTC is +2%, ETH +3%. ENA +9% is in the top half of that group.
• No fresh ENA-specific headline today. This is a sector bid, not a new catalyst.
• The catch: USDe supply is ~$4.66B, down from ~$4.76B a week ago and ~$4.87B a month ago. The ENA fee switch (revenue to ENA buybacks) only starts at $7.5B of 14-day average USDe supply. Buybacks are still far away.
📊 Daily (1D)
Big picture: ENA topped at $0.2947 on Sept 27, then bled ~41% to $0.1743 (Oct 19 low, 03:00 ICT). It is up ~17% from that low.
Oct 17–19 closed below the daily EMA50 (~$0.1956). Oct 20 reclaimed it ($0.1961 close). That is the good part.
The weak part: no daily close above the daily EMA20 (~$0.2076) since Oct 11, and it is still sloping down. Wilder RSI(14) ~49, under 50.
⏱️ 4H
Oct 20, 19:00 ICT: a spike to $0.2032 on ~3.3x average 4H volume, closed back at $0.1900. Buyers got trapped up there once.
Today, 11:00 ICT: $0.1988 → $0.2043, high $0.2065 on ~1.6x average volume. It closed under $0.2064 and the next bar is drifting.
Wilder RSI(14) ~62, warm, not overbought. The 4H EMA200 (~$0.2076) also sits inside R1, so R1 is a stacked ceiling.
Best retest zone: $0.1952–0.1988, where today's low ($0.1952), the daily EMA50 ($0.1956), the 4H EMA50 ($0.1985) and the 07:00 4H close ($0.1988) stack.
🎯 Bull / bear levels
• Bid: $0.1952–0.1988
• TP1: $0.2064–0.2086 (trim, ~0.7–0.8R from $0.1970)
• TP2: $0.2145–0.2201 (Oct 9–14 highs, ~1.3–1.7R)
• Out: 4H close below $0.1835 (stop $0.1830, ~7% risk from $0.1970)
• $0.1839–0.1851 (Oct 19–20 lows) is the last line, not an add. It sits right on the invalidation.
• Bull trigger: a 4H close above $0.2086 that holds on the retest flips the ceiling and opens $0.2145–0.2201.
• Bear case: lose $0.1835 and the $0.1743–0.1760 lows (Oct 18–19) are back in play.
Chasing from ~$0.2038 gives only ~0.1–0.2R to TP1. Not worth it.
💭 My take
This is a sector move into a stacked ceiling, while the core metric (USDe supply) is shrinking. So the RR is only fair, even from the bid. I'd rather get filled on a $0.1952–0.1988 retest, size small and trim at R1 than buy the tag of $0.2065. If it never dips, I wait for a 4H close above $0.2086 and re-plan. My plan is wrong below $0.1835.
Where are you bidding $ENA: the $0.1952–0.1988 retest, only after $0.2086 flips, or not until USDe supply grows again? 👇
NFA. DYOR.