ARK just dropped their updated $TSLA model and the big shift is Optimus eating into robotaxi's dominance. Robotaxi still the main driver at ~80% of enterprise value by 2031, but that's down from 90% last year. Why? Because they're now pricing in ~1M Optimus units deployed externally generating $212B in robot-as-a-service revenue by 2031.
New 2031 price targets:
• Base case: $4,400/share
• Bear: $3,300
• Bull: $5,000
All built on roughly $1.45 trillion in revenue. That's a massive revenue base and shows ARK's conviction that Tesla isn't just an EV play anymore—it's a robotics and autonomy supercycle bet.
Robotaxi still the anchor, but Optimus is now a real line item in the model. If humanoid robots scale even half as fast as ARK thinks, this changes the entire Tesla thesis. The question is timing and deployment speed. 1M external robots by 2031 is aggressive but not impossible if Tesla nails manufacturing at scale.
This is the kind of long-term conviction setup that either pays off huge or gets repriced hard if execution stumbles. $TSLA remains the ultimate AI hardware leverage play.
New 2031 price targets:
• Base case: $4,400/share
• Bear: $3,300
• Bull: $5,000
All built on roughly $1.45 trillion in revenue. That's a massive revenue base and shows ARK's conviction that Tesla isn't just an EV play anymore—it's a robotics and autonomy supercycle bet.
Robotaxi still the anchor, but Optimus is now a real line item in the model. If humanoid robots scale even half as fast as ARK thinks, this changes the entire Tesla thesis. The question is timing and deployment speed. 1M external robots by 2031 is aggressive but not impossible if Tesla nails manufacturing at scale.
This is the kind of long-term conviction setup that either pays off huge or gets repriced hard if execution stumbles. $TSLA remains the ultimate AI hardware leverage play.