did hackers break Zcash? no. and I think the market is pricing the wrong risk

ZachXBT traced about 2,700 ZEC into the Ironwood shielded pool after the Bitget breach
Bitget's number for the whole incident is about $387.5 million. a sliver, not a flood
the allegations are about using privacy features, no new Ironwood bug
investigators still see coins enter and exit the pool, not the middle

$ZEC
got hit anyway
🔸 1,161 now, -31.6% from the 30-day high of 1,698
🔸 -12.7% on the week, 11.3 points worse than BTC
🔸 Grayscale ZCSH had its first weekly outflow since late August, $93.56 million in the week ended October 2

that last one matters: the money started leaving before any hack headline. so the hack is the excuse, not the cause

by account count the crowd leans short, long/short 0.74, but funding at +0.0100% hasn't flipped. many shorts, no panic yet

the catalyst lands October 20, the final NU7 mainnet decision. mainnet targeted for November 5, block spacing from 75 seconds to 25, at least 60% of fees removed from circulation

my call: NU7 approved and 1,049, the 30-day low, holds — those shorts end up wrong. 1,049 breaks, the hack headlines win this round

#zcash #zec #NU7