$AVAX opened the Oct 18 daily candle at ~$9.77, about 2% above its daily EMA50 ($9.55). The September breakout is being tested. Here is my plan.

Where price is

Binance data at 07:18 ICT: $9.773, -1.64% in 24h, 24h range $9.562–10.102, ~$17.2M quote volume. The Oct 15 wick to $9.337 is the floor of the Oct 9–17 range ($9.34–11.12).

News: on Oct 15, Charles Schwab's CEO said AVAX, SOL and LINK trading is planned by the end of 2026. Price kept fading anyway, so I trade the chart, not the headline.

Daily (1D)

The Sep 18–20 breakout took AVAX from ~$7.6 to $11.3, then it ranged as high as $12.01 (Sep 29). Since the Oct 8 drop the highs are lower: $11.12 (Oct 12), $10.52 (Oct 16). Price is below EMA20 (~$10.23) but on EMA50 (~$9.55), with EMA100 (~$8.80) and EMA200 (~$8.71) far below. Wilder RSI(14) 45.5: neutral, room both ways.

4H

EMA20 ~$9.98 is under EMA50 ~$10.20, so the short-term trend is still down. RSI(14) 40.6. The dip to $9.562 around 04:00 ICT was bought fast. A 4H close back above $10.00 (the 4H EMA20) flips the short-term picture.

The plan

- Bid: $9.50–9.60 (daily EMA50)

- Add: $9.34–9.40 (Oct 15 sweep low)

- TP1: $10.20–10.30 (daily EMA20 + 4H EMA50)

- TP2: $10.95–11.10 (Oct 11–12 highs)

- Invalidation: 4H close below $9.20

From a $9.55 fill, risk is ~3.7%: ~1.9–2.1R to TP1, ~4.0–4.4R to TP2.

Bull case

The EMA50 holds on a daily close, 4H reclaims $10.00, and price works back to the daily EMA20 near $10.23. Above $10.52 (Oct 16 high), the Oct 11–12 highs are in play.

Bear case (what changes my mind)

A 4H close under $9.20 means the Oct 15 low failed and the breakout is unwinding. Next magnets: EMA100 (~$8.80) and EMA200 (~$8.71). I step aside and wait.

My take

Clean level, defined risk. I'd rather get filled on the EMA50 than buy $9.77 into a 4H downtrend. If it never dips, no trade.

Where is your bid on $AVAX? 👇

NFA, DYOR.