Fed hike odds for October fell from about 36% to 17% in a week. September payrolls came in at just 29k, and Warsh wouldn’t say what the Fed does next, so the market moved.
The easy reading is lower yields, a softer dollar, and some room for crypto. Maybe. But CPI is at 3.7% and PPI at 6.3%, so the Fed is stuck between a weakening job market and prices that won’t cool. If inflation fades, that 17% could go to zero. If oil flares up, it snaps back fast. Honestly, nobody knows, the Fed included.
For ETH, I’d keep two things apart. Short-term moves come from liquidity and leveraged traders getting squeezed, which is why headlines like this produce those long wicks. That tells you a lot about how crowded the trade is and very little about Ethereum itself. What makes ETH worth holding is slower: people actually using the chain and its L2s, security, decentralization, and whether the fee economics hold up. A Fed headline doesn’t touch any of that.
So instead of asking whether ETH pumps on this, I’d ask what’s left of my thesis if the data flips next week, and whether my position is small enough that I don’t have to sell if I’m wrong about the Fed.
Not financial advice.
#美国ppi同比升至6.3%
The easy reading is lower yields, a softer dollar, and some room for crypto. Maybe. But CPI is at 3.7% and PPI at 6.3%, so the Fed is stuck between a weakening job market and prices that won’t cool. If inflation fades, that 17% could go to zero. If oil flares up, it snaps back fast. Honestly, nobody knows, the Fed included.
For ETH, I’d keep two things apart. Short-term moves come from liquidity and leveraged traders getting squeezed, which is why headlines like this produce those long wicks. That tells you a lot about how crowded the trade is and very little about Ethereum itself. What makes ETH worth holding is slower: people actually using the chain and its L2s, security, decentralization, and whether the fee economics hold up. A Fed headline doesn’t touch any of that.
So instead of asking whether ETH pumps on this, I’d ask what’s left of my thesis if the data flips next week, and whether my position is small enough that I don’t have to sell if I’m wrong about the Fed.
Not financial advice.
#美国ppi同比升至6.3%