A BIS working paper found a one basis point rise in U.S. bank deposit rates predicted ten-week stablecoin market-cap growth falling from 15% to 12%, though growth remained positive. The effect was stronger for Circle’s #USDT than Tether’s USDT, consistent with USDC’s closer ties to U.S. users, according to CoinDesk. Researchers Rashad Ahmed and Iñaki Aldasoro studied weekly data from January 2019 to June 2025; a preferred estimate put growth at 6%, but had methodological weaknesses, and the sample covers one high-rate period. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned in January that as much as $6 trillion in deposits could shift into stablecoins and related products offering returns; the paper does not establish deposit or lending losses.$USDT