‼️BTC Analysis: A Descending Channel or a Bear Trap?
On a local timeframe, Bitcoin is clearly tracing a descending parallel channel (or a descending wedge), within which the price is methodically drifting lower. The zigzag pattern (indicated by white lines) reveals a structure that resembles a potential "double bottom" (a W-pattern).
Historically, such patterns result in an upward breakout 70% of the time. Right now, a major player appears to be shaking out retail investors while absorbing the sell-side volume coming from ETFs.
Under pressure from bears, the price dipped below a key level at $80,089 (marked by a light-blue support line), swept liquidity from leveraged long positions, and—under immediate buying pressure—snapped back into the channel. This is a strong bullish signal (a "bullish liquidity sweep").
The most recent local rebound stalled precisely at the intersection of the channel’s upper boundary and the 200-period moving average (the pink line, located around $82,650–$82,800). This price movement yielded a 7% profit (see my previous post). As long as the price remains below this level, a local pullback is underway. A short position on this move generated at least a 10% profit (see my previous post).
On-chain metrics show an all-time high in the number of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC. Large players and funds—such as Strategy Inc.—are aggressively accumulating during this dip.
Institutional investors have been taking profits, and inflows into spot ETFs are currently on pause; this is what is holding back a retail-driven rally.
My primary expectation is an upward breakout. Locally, we might continue to trade sideways within the $80,000–$81,000 range, but the real upward move will begin once there is an impulsive breakout followed by the price consolidating above the 200-period moving average (MA 200) at $82,800. From there, the path will be clear toward $85,000+.
I will re-evaluate my positions if the price consolidates below the support level at $80,089. Follow for more.
Wishing everyone some profit💰💪
On a local timeframe, Bitcoin is clearly tracing a descending parallel channel (or a descending wedge), within which the price is methodically drifting lower. The zigzag pattern (indicated by white lines) reveals a structure that resembles a potential "double bottom" (a W-pattern).
Historically, such patterns result in an upward breakout 70% of the time. Right now, a major player appears to be shaking out retail investors while absorbing the sell-side volume coming from ETFs.
Under pressure from bears, the price dipped below a key level at $80,089 (marked by a light-blue support line), swept liquidity from leveraged long positions, and—under immediate buying pressure—snapped back into the channel. This is a strong bullish signal (a "bullish liquidity sweep").
The most recent local rebound stalled precisely at the intersection of the channel’s upper boundary and the 200-period moving average (the pink line, located around $82,650–$82,800). This price movement yielded a 7% profit (see my previous post). As long as the price remains below this level, a local pullback is underway. A short position on this move generated at least a 10% profit (see my previous post).
On-chain metrics show an all-time high in the number of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC. Large players and funds—such as Strategy Inc.—are aggressively accumulating during this dip.
Institutional investors have been taking profits, and inflows into spot ETFs are currently on pause; this is what is holding back a retail-driven rally.
My primary expectation is an upward breakout. Locally, we might continue to trade sideways within the $80,000–$81,000 range, but the real upward move will begin once there is an impulsive breakout followed by the price consolidating above the 200-period moving average (MA 200) at $82,800. From there, the path will be clear toward $85,000+.
I will re-evaluate my positions if the price consolidates below the support level at $80,089. Follow for more.
Wishing everyone some profit💰💪