0.2% — the only number that matters on Wednesday (CPI, 8:30 ET / 19:30 WIB).
Headline CPI will scream 3.7% y/y (up from 3.4%). Ignore it.
That whole jump is energy. August's oil surge bleeding into the print. The Fed does not trade gasoline.
The number that moves the Fed: core CPI, month-on-month.
Consensus 0.2% (down from 0.3% in August). Core y/y steady ~2.5%.
Last month's lesson: August printed 0.3% vs 0.2% expected. One tenth. September hike odds jumped 60% to 85% on CME FedWatch. That's how thin the margin is.
The cheat sheet:
0.2% or below → disinflation confirmed → October hike odds (~19%) stay dead, December pricing (~69%) starts slipping
0.3% or above → services still sticky → October 28 FOMC hike probably back on the table
$BTC just reclaimed 84K ahead of the print. A soft core probably means the tape was right. A hot core means the 80K magnet comes back.
#CPI #Bitcoin #CryptoEducation
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0,2% — satu-satunya angka yang penting hari Rabu (CPI, 19:30 WIB).
CPI headline bakal teriak 3,7% y/y (naik dari 3,4%). Abaikan.
Lonjakannya hampir murni energi. Sisa lonjakan minyak Agustus masuk ke data. The Fed nggak trading bensin.
Angka yang nggerakin The Fed: CPI inti, month-on-month.
Konsensus 0,2% (turun dari 0,3% di Agustus). Inti y/y stabil ~2,5%.
Pelajaran bulan lalu: Agustus keluar 0,3% vs ekspektasi 0,2%. Beda sepersepuluh. Peluang hike September melonjak 60% ke 85% (CME FedWatch). Segitu tipis marginnya.
Cara bacanya:
0,2% atau di bawah → disinflasi terkonfirmasi → peluang hike Oktober (~19%) tetap mati, harga Desember (~69%) mulai turun
0,3% atau di atas → inflasi jasa masih sticky → hike FOMC 28 Oktober kemungkinan balik ke meja
Bitcoin baru aja reclaim 84K sebelum data rilis. Core yang soft kemungkinan berarti tape bener. Core panas berarti magnet 80K balik lagi.
Headline CPI will scream 3.7% y/y (up from 3.4%). Ignore it.
That whole jump is energy. August's oil surge bleeding into the print. The Fed does not trade gasoline.
The number that moves the Fed: core CPI, month-on-month.
Consensus 0.2% (down from 0.3% in August). Core y/y steady ~2.5%.
Last month's lesson: August printed 0.3% vs 0.2% expected. One tenth. September hike odds jumped 60% to 85% on CME FedWatch. That's how thin the margin is.
The cheat sheet:
0.2% or below → disinflation confirmed → October hike odds (~19%) stay dead, December pricing (~69%) starts slipping
0.3% or above → services still sticky → October 28 FOMC hike probably back on the table
$BTC just reclaimed 84K ahead of the print. A soft core probably means the tape was right. A hot core means the 80K magnet comes back.
#CPI #Bitcoin #CryptoEducation
---
0,2% — satu-satunya angka yang penting hari Rabu (CPI, 19:30 WIB).
CPI headline bakal teriak 3,7% y/y (naik dari 3,4%). Abaikan.
Lonjakannya hampir murni energi. Sisa lonjakan minyak Agustus masuk ke data. The Fed nggak trading bensin.
Angka yang nggerakin The Fed: CPI inti, month-on-month.
Konsensus 0,2% (turun dari 0,3% di Agustus). Inti y/y stabil ~2,5%.
Pelajaran bulan lalu: Agustus keluar 0,3% vs ekspektasi 0,2%. Beda sepersepuluh. Peluang hike September melonjak 60% ke 85% (CME FedWatch). Segitu tipis marginnya.
Cara bacanya:
0,2% atau di bawah → disinflasi terkonfirmasi → peluang hike Oktober (~19%) tetap mati, harga Desember (~69%) mulai turun
0,3% atau di atas → inflasi jasa masih sticky → hike FOMC 28 Oktober kemungkinan balik ke meja
Bitcoin baru aja reclaim 84K sebelum data rilis. Core yang soft kemungkinan berarti tape bener. Core panas berarti magnet 80K balik lagi.