SPY's trading volume has reached a new low in nearly 6 years, and the new account believes that BTC will have an extreme trend.
On the forecast market Polymarket, after the new account Cyclewin was created on October 8, it bought 9 BTC and ETH in the deep decline of the market during the year, investing $23.25k. Its BTC position covers $60k-$35k six gears, and ETH position covers $1.5k-$800 three gears. If the two deepest thresholds are all triggered (i.e. BTC falls to $35k and ETH falls to $800), the total settlement of 9 positions is $304.18k, corresponding to ROI of about 1,208.2%.
Market analysis generally believes that during the calm period, the crypto market can operate independently around ETF capital flow, regulation and on-chain leverage; the correlation between the crypto market and the traditional financial market will usually increase rapidly when interest rates rise, the US dollar strengthens or the concentrated sale of risky assets. CME Group also pointed out that the correlation between BTC and Nasd tends to tighten when the market is under pressure.
This is also the reason why SPY's turnover is worth paying attention to. On October 9, SPY rose about 0.6% to close at $778.57, still close to a record high, but only about 22.6m shares were traded all day, the lowest level since Christmas Eve in 2019.
On the forecast market Polymarket, after the new account Cyclewin was created on October 8, it bought 9 BTC and ETH in the deep decline of the market during the year, investing $23.25k. Its BTC position covers $60k-$35k six gears, and ETH position covers $1.5k-$800 three gears. If the two deepest thresholds are all triggered (i.e. BTC falls to $35k and ETH falls to $800), the total settlement of 9 positions is $304.18k, corresponding to ROI of about 1,208.2%.
Market analysis generally believes that during the calm period, the crypto market can operate independently around ETF capital flow, regulation and on-chain leverage; the correlation between the crypto market and the traditional financial market will usually increase rapidly when interest rates rise, the US dollar strengthens or the concentrated sale of risky assets. CME Group also pointed out that the correlation between BTC and Nasd tends to tighten when the market is under pressure.
This is also the reason why SPY's turnover is worth paying attention to. On October 9, SPY rose about 0.6% to close at $778.57, still close to a record high, but only about 22.6m shares were traded all day, the lowest level since Christmas Eve in 2019.