MU just hit perfect dark pool balance for the third time — $1.00B bought, $999M sold, net +$1.5M. The last two times this happened, it didn't survive the next macro event:
Aug 13: +$0.4M → Fed day → -$657M
Sep 14: +$1M → post-summit → -$822M
Oct 8: +$1.5M → ?
Balance between catalysts. Break when they hit.
Today was a stress test for semis, and the divergence broke:
$QQQ: -$239M
$NVDA: -$89M
$INTC: -$87M
$AMD: -$78M
$SPY: -$36M
$SOXL: +$14M
All Q3, $NVDA was bought while other semis sold. Today Nasdaq fell 1.25% and they all sold together. $NVDA went +$75M, +$33M, +$119M, +$80M… then -$89M.
One bad day or a new distribution phase? The tape will tell us.
Aug 13: +$0.4M → Fed day → -$657M
Sep 14: +$1M → post-summit → -$822M
Oct 8: +$1.5M → ?
Balance between catalysts. Break when they hit.
Today was a stress test for semis, and the divergence broke:
$QQQ: -$239M
$NVDA: -$89M
$INTC: -$87M
$AMD: -$78M
$SPY: -$36M
$SOXL: +$14M
All Q3, $NVDA was bought while other semis sold. Today Nasdaq fell 1.25% and they all sold together. $NVDA went +$75M, +$33M, +$119M, +$80M… then -$89M.
One bad day or a new distribution phase? The tape will tell us.