The MOVE/VIX gap — the most-shared bear chart this week — doesn't hold up under scrutiny.
Yes, bond vol is at a record extreme versus equity vol, adjusted for regime. That part checks out.
But the "bonds lead stocks" thesis? Doesn't exist in the data. Correlation of MOVE today with VIX 1 to 20 days later: effectively zero.
The drawdown narrative falls apart too. The signal fired six times since 2021. Stocks fell 10%+ after only one of them. A random day has better odds.
The 2023 "hit" fired after SVB had already failed. $SPY rallied 17.7% from there.
Real divergence, sure. But no predictive edge.
$SPY $QQQ
Yes, bond vol is at a record extreme versus equity vol, adjusted for regime. That part checks out.
But the "bonds lead stocks" thesis? Doesn't exist in the data. Correlation of MOVE today with VIX 1 to 20 days later: effectively zero.
The drawdown narrative falls apart too. The signal fired six times since 2021. Stocks fell 10%+ after only one of them. A random day has better odds.
The 2023 "hit" fired after SVB had already failed. $SPY rallied 17.7% from there.
Real divergence, sure. But no predictive edge.
$SPY $QQQ