#FedMinutesFocusOnOctoberPause
The Fed may be getting ready to pause in October.
After raising rates to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, the Federal Reserve now faces a difficult balance. Inflation remains above target, while the labor market is showing signs of weakness.
PCE inflation was around 3.8% in August, with core PCE at approximately 3.4%, both well above the Fed’s 2% target.
At the same time, the September jobs report showed only 29,000 jobs added and unemployment rising to 4.2%.
The message is clear:
Inflation says hike.
Employment says wait.
An October pause would therefore not necessarily mean the Fed has turned dovish. It could simply mean policymakers want more data before deciding whether another hike is necessary.
The bigger question is what happens in December.
If inflation continues to fall while the labor market weakens, markets could start pricing in easier monetary policy. That could support stocks, crypto and other risk assets.
If inflation remains stubborn, another rate hike could still return to the table.
October could be a pause. December could reveal whether that pause was the beginning of a pivot or simply a temporary break.
#FOMO #BinanceLaunchesBinanceIntelligence #InterestRates
The Fed may be getting ready to pause in October.
After raising rates to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, the Federal Reserve now faces a difficult balance. Inflation remains above target, while the labor market is showing signs of weakness.
PCE inflation was around 3.8% in August, with core PCE at approximately 3.4%, both well above the Fed’s 2% target.
At the same time, the September jobs report showed only 29,000 jobs added and unemployment rising to 4.2%.
The message is clear:
Inflation says hike.
Employment says wait.
An October pause would therefore not necessarily mean the Fed has turned dovish. It could simply mean policymakers want more data before deciding whether another hike is necessary.
The bigger question is what happens in December.
If inflation continues to fall while the labor market weakens, markets could start pricing in easier monetary policy. That could support stocks, crypto and other risk assets.
If inflation remains stubborn, another rate hike could still return to the table.
October could be a pause. December could reveal whether that pause was the beginning of a pivot or simply a temporary break.
#FOMO #BinanceLaunchesBinanceIntelligence #InterestRates