Altcoin season doesn't arrive on a calendar. It arrives when BTC dominance peaks and starts rolling over — and that rotation pattern is more readable than most traders realize.

Here's what the playbook looks like: BTC dominance climbs during accumulation phases as capital consolidates into perceived safety. Then, once BTC price stabilizes or grinds sideways at a high, fresh liquidity overflows into large-cap alts first — $ETH leads, followed by $BNB and $SOL . Only after those confirm strength does capital cascade into mid- and small-cap altcoins.

The trap most retail traders fall into is chasing alts before the rotation is confirmed. They see BTC stagnating and pile into speculative tokens, only to get caught in a BTC drawdown that drags everything lower. The rotation signal only becomes reliable once BTC.D breaks below a key moving average on the weekly chart with expanding volume.

A secondary confirmation: watch ETH/BTC. When that ratio reclaims its 50-week MA and holds, $ETH is absorbing capital that would otherwise sit in Bitcoin. That ratio turning up historically precedes the broadest altcoin rallies by 3–6 weeks.

Patience is the edge. The rotation signals exist. Most people just act on them too early.

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