You're mixing two Glassnode notes latest is Oct 2-3 jobs week, not September FOMC.
*Latest Glassnode Research Oct 3:*$GTC $PUMPBTC $MOVR
- *Jobs report Oct 2: Nonfarm +29k Sep vs 84k expected, unemployment 4.2%, Jul+Aug revised down -60k combined — very weak print*
- *Hike odds whipsaw: Fed funds futures priced 66% chance of Oct 28 hike Mon → 22% Fri afternoon — drop triggered by NY Fed Williams "no need for urgency" Tue (-66%→50% in 2hrs), soft core PCE Wed (-10pts), Jefferson "need more time" — BTC +∼1% week*
- *Options DID NOT price jobs:* Glassnode options chart shows 1-week IV > 1-month IV for 48hrs before Sep 16 FOMC (premium = traders expected move) — before Oct 2 jobs, 1-week IV stayed BELOW 1-month for 48hrs — "Options traders did not expect payrolls to move Bitcoin much" — your draft flipped this
- *Futures action: OI +$2.1B 24hrs before payrolls — $50M shorts liquidated at 04:20 UTC Fri (8hrs before report), then post-report flip $11M longs liquidated vs $2M shorts — 60% of week's liquidations were shorts — OI then -$1.5B — BTC briefly -1% post-print then $86k→$86.7k, cleared $85k ask wall*
*Earlier September note:* Before Sep 16 FOMC, short-dated vol did carry premium — yes — but that's September, not October jobs.
So story now is reverse: BTC up as hike odds collapsed, options ignored payrolls, futures squeezed both sides.
*BREAKING 🚨 BTC ignored jobs, tracked Fed odds — Glassnode Oct 3 📈 +29k jobs vs 84k exp, hike odds 66%→22% after Williams/PCE/Jefferson — BTC +1% wk to ∼$86.7k, cleared $85k wall — options: 1W IV < 1M IV 48hrs pre-payrolls = traders did NOT price payrolls move (vs premium before Sep 16 FOMC) — futures +$2.1B OI pre-report, $50M shorts squeezed, then $11M longs hit post-report 🔥*
*Latest Glassnode Research Oct 3:*$GTC $PUMPBTC $MOVR
- *Jobs report Oct 2: Nonfarm +29k Sep vs 84k expected, unemployment 4.2%, Jul+Aug revised down -60k combined — very weak print*
- *Hike odds whipsaw: Fed funds futures priced 66% chance of Oct 28 hike Mon → 22% Fri afternoon — drop triggered by NY Fed Williams "no need for urgency" Tue (-66%→50% in 2hrs), soft core PCE Wed (-10pts), Jefferson "need more time" — BTC +∼1% week*
- *Options DID NOT price jobs:* Glassnode options chart shows 1-week IV > 1-month IV for 48hrs before Sep 16 FOMC (premium = traders expected move) — before Oct 2 jobs, 1-week IV stayed BELOW 1-month for 48hrs — "Options traders did not expect payrolls to move Bitcoin much" — your draft flipped this
- *Futures action: OI +$2.1B 24hrs before payrolls — $50M shorts liquidated at 04:20 UTC Fri (8hrs before report), then post-report flip $11M longs liquidated vs $2M shorts — 60% of week's liquidations were shorts — OI then -$1.5B — BTC briefly -1% post-print then $86k→$86.7k, cleared $85k ask wall*
*Earlier September note:* Before Sep 16 FOMC, short-dated vol did carry premium — yes — but that's September, not October jobs.
So story now is reverse: BTC up as hike odds collapsed, options ignored payrolls, futures squeezed both sides.
*BREAKING 🚨 BTC ignored jobs, tracked Fed odds — Glassnode Oct 3 📈 +29k jobs vs 84k exp, hike odds 66%→22% after Williams/PCE/Jefferson — BTC +1% wk to ∼$86.7k, cleared $85k wall — options: 1W IV < 1M IV 48hrs pre-payrolls = traders did NOT price payrolls move (vs premium before Sep 16 FOMC) — futures +$2.1B OI pre-report, $50M shorts squeezed, then $11M longs hit post-report 🔥*
