October has more than $1.3 billion in token unlocks scheduled. Two of the biggest are happening this week: ENA on October 5 and HYPE on October 6.
I want to compare them, because the structures are completely different — and that difference matters more than the dollar amounts.
ENA is unlocking roughly 1.4 billion tokens, about 14.3% of circulating supply. This is a cliff unlock. Ethena consolidated investor unlocks that were originally spread across years into one event. A cliff means the entire amount hits at once. Supply shock is concentrated.
HYPE is unlocking about 3.75 million tokens, roughly 1.69% of circulating supply. This is a linear unlock — a smaller slice releasing on a schedule. The percentage is far lower, and the release is spread out.
But here’s where it gets more interesting.
Ethena’s buyback mechanism — the thing that would absorb sell pressure — is not active yet. The trigger is USDe supply reaching $7.5 billion. Right now USDe is around $5 billion. That’s a $2.5 billion gap. So there’s no programmatic bid in the market for ENA right now.
Hyperliquid already handled its unlock differently. The team sold the tokens OTC to an institutional buyer and disclosed it ahead of time. No tokens hit the open market. Short-term pressure was isolated.
Two unlocks. Two structures. Two very different paths for supply.
The lesson isn’t “one is better.” The lesson is that “unlock” is a category, not a signal. A 14% cliff with no buyback support is a different event from a 1.7% linear release sold OTC. Treating them the same is how you misread the market.
I’m watching ENA exchange net inflows after today. If tokens move to exchange wallets, sellers are preparing. For HYPE, I’m watching the OTC buyer’s on-chain activity after October 7.
$ENA $HYPE
#research #tokenomics #unlocks #BinanceSquare
I want to compare them, because the structures are completely different — and that difference matters more than the dollar amounts.
ENA is unlocking roughly 1.4 billion tokens, about 14.3% of circulating supply. This is a cliff unlock. Ethena consolidated investor unlocks that were originally spread across years into one event. A cliff means the entire amount hits at once. Supply shock is concentrated.
HYPE is unlocking about 3.75 million tokens, roughly 1.69% of circulating supply. This is a linear unlock — a smaller slice releasing on a schedule. The percentage is far lower, and the release is spread out.
But here’s where it gets more interesting.
Ethena’s buyback mechanism — the thing that would absorb sell pressure — is not active yet. The trigger is USDe supply reaching $7.5 billion. Right now USDe is around $5 billion. That’s a $2.5 billion gap. So there’s no programmatic bid in the market for ENA right now.
Hyperliquid already handled its unlock differently. The team sold the tokens OTC to an institutional buyer and disclosed it ahead of time. No tokens hit the open market. Short-term pressure was isolated.
Two unlocks. Two structures. Two very different paths for supply.
The lesson isn’t “one is better.” The lesson is that “unlock” is a category, not a signal. A 14% cliff with no buyback support is a different event from a 1.7% linear release sold OTC. Treating them the same is how you misread the market.
I’m watching ENA exchange net inflows after today. If tokens move to exchange wallets, sellers are preparing. For HYPE, I’m watching the OTC buyer’s on-chain activity after October 7.
$ENA $HYPE
#research #tokenomics #unlocks #BinanceSquare
