Weekend deep dive stock 09
$VICR: it's up 70% in a month on two guidance raises, but there's no base yet. It closed Friday at 308.90, 19% under the 382.65 June high.
✅️ What I like
Chart: Two gap-ups, on Sep 22 and Oct 1, both on news, and the Sep 17 gap at 190–206 is still unfilled. Buyers keep stepping in.
Fundamentals: It raised the Q3 growth outlook twice in nine days, from nearly 10% to over 20% and then over 30%, on royalties from a new license with an unnamed AI OEM. Q2 revenue was $143.4M (+27% q/q), with a 58% gross margin and a $380M backlog.
🚨 What worries me
Chart: It's 41% above the 50-day, and the Oct 1 gap faded 6.5% from the open. Risk to the Invalid is about 16% for 15.6% upside to the high, so the reward-to-risk is poor.
Fundamentals: Insiders sold $410.8M over 12 months with zero buys, mostly the CEO (about $334M). The stock has a boom-bust history, and earnings are expected around Oct 20.
💡 Trade idea: no clean setup. I'd wait for a base or a flag. If it closes over 331:
Confirm 331 · TP1 350.52 · TP2 361.89 · TP3 382.65 · Invalid 279
💰 Investment: for a starter position, 283–292 (the Oct 1 gap fill and the 283 shelf), then 266–269. A weekly close under 260 breaks the base.
Not financial advice
#stocks
$VICR: it's up 70% in a month on two guidance raises, but there's no base yet. It closed Friday at 308.90, 19% under the 382.65 June high.
✅️ What I like
Chart: Two gap-ups, on Sep 22 and Oct 1, both on news, and the Sep 17 gap at 190–206 is still unfilled. Buyers keep stepping in.
Fundamentals: It raised the Q3 growth outlook twice in nine days, from nearly 10% to over 20% and then over 30%, on royalties from a new license with an unnamed AI OEM. Q2 revenue was $143.4M (+27% q/q), with a 58% gross margin and a $380M backlog.
🚨 What worries me
Chart: It's 41% above the 50-day, and the Oct 1 gap faded 6.5% from the open. Risk to the Invalid is about 16% for 15.6% upside to the high, so the reward-to-risk is poor.
Fundamentals: Insiders sold $410.8M over 12 months with zero buys, mostly the CEO (about $334M). The stock has a boom-bust history, and earnings are expected around Oct 20.
💡 Trade idea: no clean setup. I'd wait for a base or a flag. If it closes over 331:
Confirm 331 · TP1 350.52 · TP2 361.89 · TP3 382.65 · Invalid 279
💰 Investment: for a starter position, 283–292 (the Oct 1 gap fill and the 283 shelf), then 266–269. A weekly close under 260 breaks the base.
Not financial advice
#stocks
