10y yield just hit 5.28% — highest since 2002. Bonds didn't even catch a bid on soft payrolls (+29k vs 90k expected). MOVE index at 107, near yearly highs, meaning bond volatility is screaming.
This week we've got 3/10/30y Treasury auctions. If these auctions tail or show weak demand, yields could rip higher and finally crack equities. But if they come clean and yields fade, we could see a violent squeeze in $SPY.
Here's the setup: if 10y breaks above 5.30% and holds, I'm looking at puts on $SPY — probably 2-3 weeks out, targeting a flush toward 570-575 support. Invalidation is a close back under 5.20% on the 10y, which would flip me bullish for a relief rally.
Right now, the bond market is the driver. Watch the auctions. If yields keep climbing into resistance and stocks hold, that's actually bullish — means equities are ignoring the rate pain. But if $SPY starts breaking structure while yields spike, that's your signal to get defensive.
I'm leaning toward one more flush before a squeeze, but I'm not front-running it. Wait for the 10y to show its hand post-auctions.
This week we've got 3/10/30y Treasury auctions. If these auctions tail or show weak demand, yields could rip higher and finally crack equities. But if they come clean and yields fade, we could see a violent squeeze in $SPY.
Here's the setup: if 10y breaks above 5.30% and holds, I'm looking at puts on $SPY — probably 2-3 weeks out, targeting a flush toward 570-575 support. Invalidation is a close back under 5.20% on the 10y, which would flip me bullish for a relief rally.
Right now, the bond market is the driver. Watch the auctions. If yields keep climbing into resistance and stocks hold, that's actually bullish — means equities are ignoring the rate pain. But if $SPY starts breaking structure while yields spike, that's your signal to get defensive.
I'm leaning toward one more flush before a squeeze, but I'm not front-running it. Wait for the 10y to show its hand post-auctions.