Brazil’s presidential election is creating uncertainty in financial markets. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro are competing closely in Sunday’s first-round vote. If neither gets more than 50%, a runoff will take place on October 25. JPMorgan said Brazilian stocks have risen as Bolsonaro’s poll numbers improved. Prediction markets showed Bolsonaro at 60% and Lula at 39%. JPMorgan expects the currency, bonds and stocks could react differently depending on the winner. It estimated USD/BRL at 5.50 under Lula and 4.90 under Bolsonaro. Citi economist Leonardo Porto said Brazil needs fiscal adjustments of 3%–3.5% to stabilize government debt.

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