JPM collar just rolled into December. New strikes: short call at 8060, put spread 7245/6110. About 23,300 contracts, plus 3,000 in $SPX. Total notional ~$309.6 million.
FinTwit will call 8060 the Q4 ceiling. The data says otherwise. We backtested every JPM collar call from 2019–2025. $SPX broke through the call strike in 17 of 25 quarters — 68% of the time. When it broke, it averaged 212 points above and held there for ~30 days.
Last quarter: Q2 call was 6865. $SPX closed June 30 at 7440 — 575 points through.
8060 is a level to track, not a hard cap to trade around. The collar is a hedge, not a forecast. $SPY $QQQ
FinTwit will call 8060 the Q4 ceiling. The data says otherwise. We backtested every JPM collar call from 2019–2025. $SPX broke through the call strike in 17 of 25 quarters — 68% of the time. When it broke, it averaged 212 points above and held there for ~30 days.
Last quarter: Q2 call was 6865. $SPX closed June 30 at 7440 — 575 points through.
8060 is a level to track, not a hard cap to trade around. The collar is a hedge, not a forecast. $SPY $QQQ
