ETH is caught between two opposing forces.

ETH faces a different set of dynamics compared to BTC.

On one hand, there are expectations of a crypto market recovery as US inflation cools and Citi raises its 12-month forecast for ETH to 3,028.

On the other hand, Treasury yields exceeding 5% continue to put pressure on the cost of capital and the valuation of risk assets.

The key factor to watch is not merely whether ETH rises, but whether it can maintain its strength despite a macroeconomic environment that remains unfavorable.

If capital flows return to crypto while yields remain high, the market will likely see a clearer divergence between assets with unique narratives and those that rise solely on the back of liquidity.

At this juncture, ETH must be viewed through two lenses: the Ethereum specific narrative and the broader economic story.