$BTC Hit $85K Fast Then Crashed to $83.5K Fast — But There Is A Reason 🔥 Is The $100K Path Building? 🤔
Congratulations guys, $BTC TP2 hit perfectly as I expected. BTC reached $85.5K very fast, then dropped just as fast to around $83.6K. Now it's trying to stabilize.
But guys, this move has a reason. You need to zoom out first.
Today we got one of the better BTC macro news in recent months: August PCE came in cooler than expected. Headline PCE was 0.3% MoM / 3.4% YoY, while Core PCE was 0.2% MoM / 3.0% YoY. I already covered this earlier, and it reduced Fed hike pressure.
Then NY Fed President John Williams said "there is no need for urgency" and that the Fed has time to gather more information. Rate-hike expectations cooled further.
That's why BTC reached $85.5K so fast.
The problem came after the U.S. market opened. 10Y and 30Y yields rose again, creating pressure on risk assets. But the 2Y yield fell because near-term Fed hike expectations cooled, while 10Y/30Y react more to longer-term inflation expectations, Treasury supply and term premium.
So BTC didn't exactly "crash." It cooled down after a sharp move.
Now I'm watching the bond market. If 10Y/30Y yields cool again into the U.S. close, today's BTC pullback may have already priced in much of that pressure. In that case, BTC could try higher again later today and into Asia/Europe.
Not guaranteed - it's crypto. But the setup is still interesting. $ASTER
Congratulations guys, $BTC TP2 hit perfectly as I expected. BTC reached $85.5K very fast, then dropped just as fast to around $83.6K. Now it's trying to stabilize.
But guys, this move has a reason. You need to zoom out first.
Today we got one of the better BTC macro news in recent months: August PCE came in cooler than expected. Headline PCE was 0.3% MoM / 3.4% YoY, while Core PCE was 0.2% MoM / 3.0% YoY. I already covered this earlier, and it reduced Fed hike pressure.
Then NY Fed President John Williams said "there is no need for urgency" and that the Fed has time to gather more information. Rate-hike expectations cooled further.
That's why BTC reached $85.5K so fast.
The problem came after the U.S. market opened. 10Y and 30Y yields rose again, creating pressure on risk assets. But the 2Y yield fell because near-term Fed hike expectations cooled, while 10Y/30Y react more to longer-term inflation expectations, Treasury supply and term premium.
So BTC didn't exactly "crash." It cooled down after a sharp move.
Now I'm watching the bond market. If 10Y/30Y yields cool again into the U.S. close, today's BTC pullback may have already priced in much of that pressure. In that case, BTC could try higher again later today and into Asia/Europe.
Not guaranteed - it's crypto. But the setup is still interesting. $ASTER
