I’m already long BTC. I’m not touching the core position, but I’m adding a call on BTC futures (CME) on top. It’s a bet that after the rate hike the reversal starts and the upside accelerates. The logic: 10y is around 5.3% and pressuring risk. I expect the hike to mark the peak in yields, then they roll over. That should relieve BTC and open a window for Saylor/Strategy: issue the 13% preferred, bring STRC back to $100, run the ATM, and keep buying BTC.
Why a call and not just another long: I’m already long. The call gives me leverage to the reversal without liquidation risk on the futures long — worst case I lose the premium. Strike around +10–15% OTM, expiry 3–6 months after the expected hike. If direction and timing work, great. If not, the loss is capped.
Risks I see: the hike may not be the last one, and 10y could go above 6%. BTC may ignore falling yields. If the reversal is delayed, theta eats the premium. And on the Saylor/Strategy side: if the 13% deal doesn’t happen or STRC doesn’t hold $100, the preferred/ATM story falls apart.
Not investment advice, just my plan. $BTC
Why a call and not just another long: I’m already long. The call gives me leverage to the reversal without liquidation risk on the futures long — worst case I lose the premium. Strike around +10–15% OTM, expiry 3–6 months after the expected hike. If direction and timing work, great. If not, the loss is capped.
Risks I see: the hike may not be the last one, and 10y could go above 6%. BTC may ignore falling yields. If the reversal is delayed, theta eats the premium. And on the Saylor/Strategy side: if the 13% deal doesn’t happen or STRC doesn’t hold $100, the preferred/ATM story falls apart.
Not investment advice, just my plan. $BTC