TACO TRADE 2.0 INCOMING?
All the positive news dropping right before Wall Street opens. Coincidence? Doubt it.
Quick reminder: "Trump Always Chickens Out" - term coined by Financial Times in 2025. Pattern was simple: Trump threatens heavy tariffs → markets dump → Trump backs down days later. The play? Buy the panic.
Why this could repeat NOW:
- Trump approval at 37% - lowest for any president before midterms since 1990
- Midterms in 5 weeks (Nov 3rd)
- 7-month Iran war + expensive gas = his biggest poll killer
Last 24 hours:
- Saudi Arabia resumed oil exports via East-West pipeline (bypasses Hormuz)
- Qatar mediators meeting US + Iran today/tomorrow
- Trump says negotiations resuming this week (rejected Iran's weekend proposal though)
- Trump announcement today 3pm Argentina time
- Oil already down 2% in an hour
If Trump needs a win before November, an Iran deal that crashes oil prices is his best card.
Question is: does he fold again before midterms or does he actually hold this time?
Markets pricing in the classic TACO playbook. Watch $WTI closely.
All the positive news dropping right before Wall Street opens. Coincidence? Doubt it.
Quick reminder: "Trump Always Chickens Out" - term coined by Financial Times in 2025. Pattern was simple: Trump threatens heavy tariffs → markets dump → Trump backs down days later. The play? Buy the panic.
Why this could repeat NOW:
- Trump approval at 37% - lowest for any president before midterms since 1990
- Midterms in 5 weeks (Nov 3rd)
- 7-month Iran war + expensive gas = his biggest poll killer
Last 24 hours:
- Saudi Arabia resumed oil exports via East-West pipeline (bypasses Hormuz)
- Qatar mediators meeting US + Iran today/tomorrow
- Trump says negotiations resuming this week (rejected Iran's weekend proposal though)
- Trump announcement today 3pm Argentina time
- Oil already down 2% in an hour
If Trump needs a win before November, an Iran deal that crashes oil prices is his best card.
Question is: does he fold again before midterms or does he actually hold this time?
Markets pricing in the classic TACO playbook. Watch $WTI closely.
