$BTC Bitcoin's famed four-year cycle has not shown up in this bear market, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said on X. Where the past three cycles each saw drawdowns more than twice as deep as today's roughly 30% retracement from the all-time high, this cycle's decline has stayed shallow — and with price recovering to around $84,600, Glassnode argues a past-style deep correction looks increasingly unlikely.
This Cycle's Drawdown Is Less Than Half of Historical Bear Markets
Glassnode's data shows drawdowns in each of the past three cycles exceeded twice the current cycle's roughly 30% pullback — historically, Bitcoin bear markets in 2015, 2018 and 2022 erased between roughly 77% and 85% of value from peak to trough (general market history, not from the Glassnode post). By the four-year calendar template, several weeks would still remain before the cycle low arrives; instead, Bitcoin has already reclaimed the $80,000–$82,000 supply band, the 50-week SMA at $81,081, and pushed as high as $87,300 this week before settling back inside the $83,000–$86,000 long-term holder zone.
Structural Changes Explain Why This Cycle Behaves Differently
The shallower drawdown has identifiable mechanics. Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide a persistent institutional bid — Monday's ~$1 billion inflow was the largest since October 2025 — that didn't exist in prior bears. Long-term holder behavior has also shifted: 30-day LTH distribution slowed from -105,900 BTC on August 30 to -21,700 BTC by September 20, meaning the selling pressure that historically deepened corrections is drying up rather than accelerating. The halving's diminishing supply impact and a maturing derivatives market (~$160 billion in perpetual open interest) further weaken the old cycle logic.
#AIStocksWhatNext #BCHJumps28%OnCMEFuturesListing #WallStreetEarningsRevisionsTurnBearish #DollarIndexReclaims101
This Cycle's Drawdown Is Less Than Half of Historical Bear Markets
Glassnode's data shows drawdowns in each of the past three cycles exceeded twice the current cycle's roughly 30% pullback — historically, Bitcoin bear markets in 2015, 2018 and 2022 erased between roughly 77% and 85% of value from peak to trough (general market history, not from the Glassnode post). By the four-year calendar template, several weeks would still remain before the cycle low arrives; instead, Bitcoin has already reclaimed the $80,000–$82,000 supply band, the 50-week SMA at $81,081, and pushed as high as $87,300 this week before settling back inside the $83,000–$86,000 long-term holder zone.
Structural Changes Explain Why This Cycle Behaves Differently
The shallower drawdown has identifiable mechanics. Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide a persistent institutional bid — Monday's ~$1 billion inflow was the largest since October 2025 — that didn't exist in prior bears. Long-term holder behavior has also shifted: 30-day LTH distribution slowed from -105,900 BTC on August 30 to -21,700 BTC by September 20, meaning the selling pressure that historically deepened corrections is drying up rather than accelerating. The halving's diminishing supply impact and a maturing derivatives market (~$160 billion in perpetual open interest) further weaken the old cycle logic.
#AIStocksWhatNext #BCHJumps28%OnCMEFuturesListing #WallStreetEarningsRevisionsTurnBearish #DollarIndexReclaims101