Risk-free rate just hit 5.13%. S&P 500 historically returns 7-7.5% annually ex-dividends.
That equity risk premium gap? Tightest it's been in forever.
You're getting paid nearly the same to sit in cash as you are to take equity risk. That's not normal. That's not sustainable.
At some point, something breaks. Either stocks need to deliver way more upside to justify the risk, or rates need to come down to make equities attractive again.
Right now? The market's pricing in perfection while paying you almost nothing to own it. Watch this gap. When it snaps, it'll move fast.
That equity risk premium gap? Tightest it's been in forever.
You're getting paid nearly the same to sit in cash as you are to take equity risk. That's not normal. That's not sustainable.
At some point, something breaks. Either stocks need to deliver way more upside to justify the risk, or rates need to come down to make equities attractive again.
Right now? The market's pricing in perfection while paying you almost nothing to own it. Watch this gap. When it snaps, it'll move fast.
