With the expiration of BTC and ETH options on September 25th, totaling approximately $18 billion, this could create conditions for high volatility. BTC is currently around $84,5K, while the estimated "maximum pain" zone is in the $75K–$76K range. However, "max pain" is just a theoretical calculation and doesn't necessarily mean that BTC will automatically be pushed there. There is also a significant concentration of call options on BTC around $85K, $90K, and $95K, which means that hedging by dealers around these strike prices could amplify movements as the expiration date approaches. The key point is that the market is not simply a "dump to maximum pain" scenario: both long and short liquidations can fuel the next move.
If BTC breaks down, accumulated long positions could be liquidated, potentially triggering a cascading sell-off and accelerating the move towards areas of lower liquidity. However, if BTC returns above $85K and starts to rise, short liquidations could work in the opposite direction, forcing short sellers to cover their positions and adding fuel to an upward surge. Therefore, with positions heavily concentrated around the main strike prices, the expiration date could turn into a "hunt for liquidity" game on both sides: longs are liquidated on a downward move, while shorts are squeezed on an upward move. The figure of $18 billion represents the notional value (outstanding amount), not $18 billion worth of BTC that must be sold. Therefore, the actual impact depends heavily on positioning, dealer hedging, and how BTC will be trading by the time of expiration.
If BTC breaks down, accumulated long positions could be liquidated, potentially triggering a cascading sell-off and accelerating the move towards areas of lower liquidity. However, if BTC returns above $85K and starts to rise, short liquidations could work in the opposite direction, forcing short sellers to cover their positions and adding fuel to an upward surge. Therefore, with positions heavily concentrated around the main strike prices, the expiration date could turn into a "hunt for liquidity" game on both sides: longs are liquidated on a downward move, while shorts are squeezed on an upward move. The figure of $18 billion represents the notional value (outstanding amount), not $18 billion worth of BTC that must be sold. Therefore, the actual impact depends heavily on positioning, dealer hedging, and how BTC will be trading by the time of expiration.