Everyone’s staring at $BTC .

I’m watching the 10Y.

With yields sitting around 5%, money is still expensive. And when the cost of money stays high, risk assets feel it.

That’s why I’m not getting too excited over every random crypto bounce.

We’ve got a whole lineup of Fed speakers next week — Williams, Jefferson, Bostic and others. But unless something actually changes in financial conditions, it’s mostly noise to me.

Give me falling 10Y yields and a weaker dollar.

That’s the setup I want to see before I start taking the next crypto move seriously.

Until then, a bounce is just a bounce.