My September 15 Fed scenario gets an indeterminate result. The weak point was in my wording.
I gave it a deadline: the September 17 UTC daily close. But I linked BTC's direction to yields and the dollar without fixing which Treasury maturity, which dollar index or which comparison time I would use.
I also wrote that BTC needed to follow through. I didn't define how much movement, or what sequence of closes, would count. A deadline can't make an undefined test measurable.
That means I can't fairly score this as a correct directional call. Choosing the best-fitting index or threshold after seeing the result would create a different scenario. I'm leaving the original conditions unchanged and recording the outcome as indeterminate.
For the next macro setup, I want the market series, starting observation, trigger and cancellation rule written down before the event. I'd also separate two questions: did the stated conditions occur, and is there enough evidence to attribute the move to that event? Matching directions alone doesn't settle the second question.
Which missing detail makes a macro scenario least useful to you: A) the exact market series, B) the activation threshold, or C) the cancellation rule - and why?
#Macro #MarketEducation
I gave it a deadline: the September 17 UTC daily close. But I linked BTC's direction to yields and the dollar without fixing which Treasury maturity, which dollar index or which comparison time I would use.
I also wrote that BTC needed to follow through. I didn't define how much movement, or what sequence of closes, would count. A deadline can't make an undefined test measurable.
That means I can't fairly score this as a correct directional call. Choosing the best-fitting index or threshold after seeing the result would create a different scenario. I'm leaving the original conditions unchanged and recording the outcome as indeterminate.
For the next macro setup, I want the market series, starting observation, trigger and cancellation rule written down before the event. I'd also separate two questions: did the stated conditions occur, and is there enough evidence to attribute the move to that event? Matching directions alone doesn't settle the second question.
Which missing detail makes a macro scenario least useful to you: A) the exact market series, B) the activation threshold, or C) the cancellation rule - and why?
#Macro #MarketEducation
