The Fed just pulled the trigger on its first rate hike in three years — but the headline decision isn’t the only thing markets are watching.
The dot plot keeps the door open for another increase before year-end. That’s the real source of uncertainty for risk assets.
Still, there’s an interesting short-term setup here. Markets had already positioned for today’s move, and the selloff came before the announcement. With the hike now confirmed, some of that bearish positioning could unwind — which may explain Bitcoin’s early bounce.
The bigger picture is less comfortable. Higher rates keep financial conditions tighter, support stronger yields, and can continue weighing on crypto and other risk-sensitive assets.
But I wouldn’t treat a second hike as guaranteed.
If geopolitical pressure fades, energy prices retreat and inflation continues cooling, the Fed could have less reason to follow through.
So I’m watching this in two timeframes:
Near term: potential relief rally.
Next few months: liquidity remains a headwind.
Second hike: still a live possibility, but not a certainty.
The Fed may have raised rates today — but the next move will depend heavily on what happens to inflation, oil and the broader macro picture.
an actual move.
For $BTC , the next major catalyst may not be today’s hike it’s whether that second hike ever happens.
$GOOGL .US $SPCX
#fedratewatch #FedHikes25BpsUSStocksClose #CryptoVCFundingRebounds$5.6BInQ
2 #ZcashRises6% #XRPSinks10%
The dot plot keeps the door open for another increase before year-end. That’s the real source of uncertainty for risk assets.
Still, there’s an interesting short-term setup here. Markets had already positioned for today’s move, and the selloff came before the announcement. With the hike now confirmed, some of that bearish positioning could unwind — which may explain Bitcoin’s early bounce.
The bigger picture is less comfortable. Higher rates keep financial conditions tighter, support stronger yields, and can continue weighing on crypto and other risk-sensitive assets.
But I wouldn’t treat a second hike as guaranteed.
If geopolitical pressure fades, energy prices retreat and inflation continues cooling, the Fed could have less reason to follow through.
So I’m watching this in two timeframes:
Near term: potential relief rally.
Next few months: liquidity remains a headwind.
Second hike: still a live possibility, but not a certainty.
The Fed may have raised rates today — but the next move will depend heavily on what happens to inflation, oil and the broader macro picture.
an actual move.
For $BTC , the next major catalyst may not be today’s hike it’s whether that second hike ever happens.
$GOOGL .US $SPCX
#fedratewatch #FedHikes25BpsUSStocksClose #CryptoVCFundingRebounds$5.6BInQ
2 #ZcashRises6% #XRPSinks10%
