🏦 92.7% Chance of a Fed Hike Today
Fed day is here 👀 CME FedWatch has a 25bps hike priced at 92.7%, pushing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The hike itself is basically priced in — what actually moves markets is Powell's tone afterward.
🔴 92.7% → odds of a 25bps hike
🔴 2:00 PM ET → Fed decision
🔴 2:30 PM ET → press conference
🔴 S&P 500 → +15.98% past 52 weeks
🔴 $BTC → -33.40% same period
History's not kind here: since 1988, in 5 of 7 first-hike cycles, the S&P was lower six weeks later (avg -2.83%).
Markets can shrug off a hike they already expect. What they can't stomach is signs of more hikes coming. Watch Powell's language, not the number.
#BTCPriceAnalysis #BitcoinPricePrediction
Fed day is here 👀 CME FedWatch has a 25bps hike priced at 92.7%, pushing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The hike itself is basically priced in — what actually moves markets is Powell's tone afterward.
🔴 92.7% → odds of a 25bps hike
🔴 2:00 PM ET → Fed decision
🔴 2:30 PM ET → press conference
🔴 S&P 500 → +15.98% past 52 weeks
🔴 $BTC → -33.40% same period
History's not kind here: since 1988, in 5 of 7 first-hike cycles, the S&P was lower six weeks later (avg -2.83%).
Markets can shrug off a hike they already expect. What they can't stomach is signs of more hikes coming. Watch Powell's language, not the number.
#BTCPriceAnalysis #BitcoinPricePrediction
