August core CPI hit 0.3% MoM, pushing odds for a 25bp Fed rate hike to ~90%. Here is the macro setup and trade outlook:
Rate Outlook: Adjust & Pause?
A 25bp hike looks likely, but as a precautionary move rather than the start of a prolonged cycle. Markets can absorb it—unless the Dot Plot signals further hikes ahead.
Asset Class Outlook
* BTC: Short-term downside volatility as real yields rise, but long-term structural support remains intact.
* Tech Stocks: Bearish pressure from elevated borrowing costs and higher discount rates on growth valuations.
* Gold: Temporarily pressured by USD strength, but backed by long-term inflation & geopolitical hedging.
Trade Strategy
* BTC: Holding core spot longs; watching for knee-jerk dips to scale in.
* Stocks: Pivoting into cash-rich, defensive tech.
* Gold: Accumulating on yield-driven pullbacks.
What's your move this week? Share your trades below! 👇
#FedRateWatch
Rate Outlook: Adjust & Pause?
A 25bp hike looks likely, but as a precautionary move rather than the start of a prolonged cycle. Markets can absorb it—unless the Dot Plot signals further hikes ahead.
Asset Class Outlook
* BTC: Short-term downside volatility as real yields rise, but long-term structural support remains intact.
* Tech Stocks: Bearish pressure from elevated borrowing costs and higher discount rates on growth valuations.
* Gold: Temporarily pressured by USD strength, but backed by long-term inflation & geopolitical hedging.
Trade Strategy
* BTC: Holding core spot longs; watching for knee-jerk dips to scale in.
* Stocks: Pivoting into cash-rich, defensive tech.
* Gold: Accumulating on yield-driven pullbacks.
What's your move this week? Share your trades below! 👇
#FedRateWatch